Hilarious!
Shades of _Braveheart_ and _Prima Nocta_.
"Liberals" can just be BRED out of existence. <g>
Capital!
DSH
---------------------------------------
GENERATIONS
The Fertility Gap
Liberal politics will prove fruitless as long as liberals refuse to
multiply.
BY ARTHUR C. BROOKS
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
The Wall Street Journal
The midterm election looms, and once again efforts begin afresh to increase
voter participation. It has become standard wisdom in American politics that
voter turnout is synonymous with good citizenship, justifying just about any
scheme to get people to the polls. Arizona is even considering a voter
lottery, in which all voters are automatically registered for a $1 million
giveaway. Polling places and liquor stores in Arizona will now have
something in common.
On the political left, raising the youth vote is one of the most common
goals. This implicitly plays to the tired old axiom that a person under 30
who is not a liberal has no heart (whereas one who is still a liberal after
30 has no head). The trouble is, while most "get out the vote" campaigns
targeting young people are proxies for the Democratic Party, these efforts
haven't apparently done much to win elections for the Democrats. The
explanation we often hear from the left is that the new young Democrats are
more than counterbalanced by voters scared up by the Republicans on
"cultural issues" like abortion, gun rights and gay marriage.
But the data on young Americans tell a different story. Simply put, liberals
have a big baby problem: They're not having enough of them, they haven't for
a long time, and their pool of potential new voters is suffering as a
result. According to the 2004 General Social Survey, if you picked 100
unrelated politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they
had, between them, 147 children. If you picked 100 conservatives, you would
find 208 kids. That's a "fertility gap" of 41%. Given that about 80% of
people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as
their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than
little Democrats to vote in future elections. Over the past 30 years this
gap has not been below 20%--explaining, to a large extent, the current
ineffectiveness of liberal youth voter campaigns today.
Alarmingly for the Democrats, the gap is widening at a bit more than half a
percentage point per year, meaning that today's problem is nothing compared
to what the future will most likely hold. Consider future presidential
elections in a swing state (like Ohio), and assume that the current patterns
in fertility continue. A state that was split 50-50 between left and right
in 2004 will tilt right by 2012, 54% to 46%. By 2020, it will be certifiably
right-wing, 59% to 41%. A state that is currently 55-45 in favor of liberals
(like California) will be 54-46 in favor of conservatives by 2020--and all
for no other reason than babies.
The fertility gap doesn't budge when we correct for factors like age,
income, education, sex, race--or even religion. Indeed, if a conservative
and a liberal are identical in all these ways, the liberal will still be 19
percentage points more likely to be childless than the conservative. Some
believe the gap reflects an authentic cultural difference between left and
right in America today. As one liberal columnist in a major paper
graphically put it, "Maybe the scales are tipping to the neoconservative,
homogenous right in our culture simply because they tend not to give much of
a damn for the ramifications of wanton breeding and environmental
destruction and pious sanctimony, whereas those on the left actually seem to
give a whit for the health of the planet and the dire effects of
overpopulation." It would appear liberals have been quite successful
controlling overpopulation--in the Democratic Party.
Of course, politics depends on a lot more than underlying ideology. People
vote for politicians, not parties. Lots of people are neither liberal nor
conservative, but rather vote on the basis of personalities and specific
issues. But all things considered, if the Democrats continue to appeal to
liberals and the Republicans to conservatives, getting out the youth vote
may be increasingly an exercise in futility for the American left.
Democratic politicians may have no more babies left to kiss.
Mr. Brooks, a professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Public
Affairs, is the author of "Who Really Cares: The Surprising Truth About
Compassionate Conservatism," forthcoming from Basic Books.
--------------------------
DSH
The Fertility Gap -- Liberal Politics Will Prove Fruitless A
Moderator: MOD_nyhetsgrupper
-
stewart_connor
"The Fertility Gap" -- Spencer Hiney Tops himself for exampl
I usually leave your Bush Crime Family Lis promotions alone but the
bizarreness of this example...
So the argument you and this "Brooks" guy are making is that the
decision of who someone votes for is genetic...
That is if it were even true that people who vote liberal dont have
children.
You really are a pair of retards.
bizarreness of this example...
So the argument you and this "Brooks" guy are making is that the
decision of who someone votes for is genetic...
That is if it were even true that people who vote liberal dont have
children.
You really are a pair of retards.
-
Cris
Re: The Fertility Gap -- Liberal Politics Will Prove Fruitle
On Tue, 22 Aug 2006 19:26:44 +0100, "D. Spencer Hines"
<poguemidden@hotmail.com> wrote:
The most dangerous thing in the combat zone is an officer with a map.
Cris
<poguemidden@hotmail.com> wrote:
"Liberals" can just be BRED out of existence. <g
The most dangerous thing in the combat zone is an officer with a map.
Cris
-
Cris
Re: "The Fertility Gap" -- Spencer Hiney Tops himself for ex
On 22 Aug 2006 13:25:33 -0700, "stewart_connor"
<stewartconnor@hotmail.com> wrote:
Never share a foxhole with anyone braver than you are.
<stewartconnor@hotmail.com> wrote:
I usually leave your Bush Crime Family Lis promotions alone but the
bizarreness of this example...
So the argument you and this "Brooks" guy are making is that the
decision of who someone votes for is genetic...
That is if it were even true that people who vote liberal dont have
children.
You really are a pair of retards.
Never share a foxhole with anyone braver than you are.
-
stewart_connor
Re: "The Fertility Gap" -- Spencer Hiney Tops himself for ex
Cris wrote:
One must assume that you are an alias of Spencer Hiney since you
created this brand new account to answer this post.
Also hiney, you are losing any semblance of coherence these days.
Must be the reality of Bush polling in the toilet has sent you over the
edge.
On 22 Aug 2006 13:25:33 -0700, "stewart_connor"
stewartconnor@hotmail.com> wrote:
I usually leave your Bush Crime Family Lis promotions alone but the
bizarreness of this example...
So the argument you and this "Brooks" guy are making is that the
decision of who someone votes for is genetic...
That is if it were even true that people who vote liberal dont have
children.
You really are a pair of retards.
Never share a foxhole with anyone braver than you are.
One must assume that you are an alias of Spencer Hiney since you
created this brand new account to answer this post.
Also hiney, you are losing any semblance of coherence these days.
Must be the reality of Bush polling in the toilet has sent you over the
edge.
-
ray o'hara
Re: The Fertility Gap -- Liberal Politics Will Prove Fruitle
"D. Spencer Hines" <poguemidden@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:30IGg.173$15.2102@eagle.america.net...
ou post lots of stupid shit but this is the topper.
news:30IGg.173$15.2102@eagle.america.net...
Hilarious!
Shades of _Braveheart_ and _Prima Nocta_.
"Liberals" can just be BRED out of existence. <g
Capital!
DSH
---------------------------------------
GENERATIONS
The Fertility Gap
Liberal politics will prove fruitless as long as liberals refuse to
multiply.
ou post lots of stupid shit but this is the topper.
-
stewart_connor
Re: "The Fertility Gap" -- Spencer Hiney Tops himself for ex
Grey Satterfield wrote:
and yet Ap-Ipsos is down 3% form 36% to 33%...
Just who do you believe anymore.
It looks much more like the near infinite financial resource of the
Bush Crime Family is being used to corrupt the very fundamental
institutions and traditions of benchmarking the public that has helped
assure people of what was going on.
You have Rove getting away with treason... and Bush admitting that Iraq
had nothing to do with 911... yet for some reason we cant see the trial
of Saddam after we had to put up with 24 hour live coverage of the O.J.
trial...
We are no longer talking about money being used to influence
democracy.... we are talking about near infinite money being used in an
experiment to KEEP THE BUSH CRIME FAMILY LIES ALIVE...
.... if we dont pretend to believe it what then?... Bush Crime Family
releases a nuclear bomb on the U.S. and claims it is Muslims?
However the reality is that LIEberman, being exposed as a Bush Crime
Family Team Member, got voted out of the Democrat party. LIEberman's
poll numbers dropped 14% in the last 28 days and the Bush Crime Family
is telling you that LIEberman is going to win and working to help him
win. This is the former democrat VP candidate.
So yes strange things are happening... the dirty politicians are
becoming very clear to all voters.... BUSH WILL BE IMPEACHED AND TRIED
FOR WAR CRAIMES ALONG WITH ALL HIS PEOPLE.
Even Republicans are talking about what insane crooks the Bush Crime
Family is.
ANY OTHER CLAIMS ARE NOTHING BUT LIES TRYING TO KEEP PEOPLE IN THE DARK.
On 8/22/06 6:21 PM, in article
1156288911.588598.321100@h48g2000cwc.googlegroups.com, "stewart_connor"
stewartconnor@hotmail.com> wrote:
One must assume that you are an alias of Spencer Hiney since you
created this brand new account to answer this post.
Also hiney, you are losing any semblance of coherence these days.
Must be the reality of Bush polling in the toilet has sent you over the
edge.
Let's look at the record.
In the latest USA Today poll, Bush's numbers are up to 42%, the highest in
six months:
and yet Ap-Ipsos is down 3% form 36% to 33%...
Just who do you believe anymore.
It looks much more like the near infinite financial resource of the
Bush Crime Family is being used to corrupt the very fundamental
institutions and traditions of benchmarking the public that has helped
assure people of what was going on.
You have Rove getting away with treason... and Bush admitting that Iraq
had nothing to do with 911... yet for some reason we cant see the trial
of Saddam after we had to put up with 24 hour live coverage of the O.J.
trial...
We are no longer talking about money being used to influence
democracy.... we are talking about near infinite money being used in an
experiment to KEEP THE BUSH CRIME FAMILY LIES ALIVE...
.... if we dont pretend to believe it what then?... Bush Crime Family
releases a nuclear bomb on the U.S. and claims it is Muslims?
However the reality is that LIEberman, being exposed as a Bush Crime
Family Team Member, got voted out of the Democrat party. LIEberman's
poll numbers dropped 14% in the last 28 days and the Bush Crime Family
is telling you that LIEberman is going to win and working to help him
win. This is the former democrat VP candidate.
So yes strange things are happening... the dirty politicians are
becoming very clear to all voters.... BUSH WILL BE IMPEACHED AND TRIED
FOR WAR CRAIMES ALONG WITH ALL HIS PEOPLE.
Even Republicans are talking about what insane crooks the Bush Crime
Family is.
ANY OTHER CLAIMS ARE NOTHING BUT LIES TRYING TO KEEP PEOPLE IN THE DARK.